vendredi 11 septembre 2015

The Fermi paradox and the invisible extraterrestrials

In the early 1950s, the physicist and Nobel laureate Enrico Fermi launched the discussion on the following apparent paradox: while about two hundred billion stars in our galaxy exist, and most likely, as we know fairly precisely today ' hui, hundreds of billions of planets also orbit around them, how can it be that we have not yet been visited by (many) of extraterrestrial civilizations?
 Indeed, hypothesize that life emerges on one very small fraction of those billions of planets in our galaxy dimensions (a few tens of thousands of light years) give hope for a civilization like ours close enough the ability to explore an appreciable fraction of the speed of light surrounding systems, an exploration of a large part of the galaxy in a time less than 1 million years. But this time is only about the ten thousandth of the age of our galaxy, the Milky Way, aged about 13 billion years, or the Universe, who is 14 billion years. It would therefore have been highly likely that Earth has been visited by hundreds of different species of aliens, who are notably absent this day.




Just a matter of time ? 
One point , however, seems to have little discussed by Fermi : the time we have before exhausting the resources at our disposal, whether the scale of our planet Earth, or even on the scale of the observable Universe ( say within a radius of 10 billion light-years , or about 100 billion billion kilometers ) . Under the seemingly reasonable assumption of a growth rate of consumption and the use of resources by 2% a year, the stripping length of the Earth's resources is a few hundred years , with a wide margin uncertainty. For the observable entire universe , curiously, the estimate is more accurate : between 5000 and 6000 years, very little about ...

Life , instability accelerator

We therefore wish here what I think is the best answer to the Fermi paradox : life
is a kind of accelerator, which causes extreme instability. Thus, without an extremely precise and rigorous strategy, it is highly probable that such ants living on a pile of saltpeter , we grillions the day we discover the matches , even before being able to develop interstellar travel . For if we analyze our history and repeated violence , quasi- permanent , if we look lucidly our greed to use shamelessly natural resources, many of which are even now being depleted , with a few lower horizon decades , the high instability brought by life seems the most likely explanation for the Fermi paradox .

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